The talk doing the rounds out of London's Project Challenge event is unfussy: the project profession is running out of people, and the way it recruits is partly to blame. Dr Ian Clarkson used his session to lay out what he called a perfect storm: rising demand for project work, a worldwide shortage of practitioners, and a workforce that is, by the numbers, ageing fast.
This is not just a hiring complaint. It is a delivery risk sitting on top of every multi-quarter roadmap.
What happened:
- Clarkson's framing: demand for project talent is high and will stay high for some time.
- Cited research: a McKinsey projection of around 5.5 million unfilled project management roles globally by 2030.
- KPMG and REC "Report on Jobs" data point to an existing shortage across project practitioner roles.
- Arraspeople's own 2020 report found only 13% of respondents were aged 34 or under.
- IPMA Young Crew and similar initiatives are flagged as one route in.
- Gallop's Clifton and Harter are cited on what "the next generation PM" looks like.
The pipeline problem
Two numbers tell most of the story. The first is the 5.5 million figure attributed in coverage to McKinsey's work on skills and the future of work, applied to the project profession out to 2030. The second is the 13% share of project professionals aged 34 and under in Arraspeople's 2020 report. Put those side by side and you have a pyramid that is steep at the top and thin at the base.
That shape has consequences regardless of which framework you run. Scrum teams still need delivery leads. Scaled agile programmes still need people who can hold a roadmap together across quarters. Traditional waterfall projects still need someone who can read a risk register without flinching. None of those roles gets easier to fill if the entry path is shaped like a country club.
Our analysis
Where this gets uncomfortable for hiring managers is the second half of Clarkson's argument. Demand is high and the work is changing, but the next cohort of practitioners does not want the job as it has been packaged. The cues from Gallup research, cited in the original coverage, are familiar but worth repeating: ongoing conversations rather than annual reviews, coaches rather than bosses, work that fits inside a life rather than displaces it.
For established PMOs, that is a realignment problem more than a recruitment problem. The roles that currently exist inside your organisation were, in many cases, designed when the bottleneck was documentation and the deliverable was a status deck. The bottleneck now is decision-making and stakeholder commitment, and the deliverable is a working product increment. Job descriptions written for the first era will repel the people you need for the second.
There is also a sector angle worth flagging. KPMG/REC data shows project practitioner shortages are not uniform: some sectors are flooded, others are bare. If your team is bleeding PMs into fintech or defence, the answer is rarely a small pay bump; it is usually a packaging problem that no amount of LinkedIn posts fixes.
Say you are hiring your next delivery lead
Stop writing the role around five years of PMP and a PRINCE2 logo. Instead, write it around the three decisions the person will actually own in their first quarter: setting sprint boundaries, negotiating scope with a product owner and recovering a slipped milestone without theatre. Then look at your interview panel. If everyone on it is over 40 and has been in the same sector since graduation, your shortlist will look the same. Bring in someone from outside the function, ideally under 30, to score against a rubric built from those three decisions. You will still hire well; you will just hire a wider pool.
What to watch next
Watch whether IPMA Young Crew and other youth-focused bodies can move from events to placements in 2025, and whether major employers change their PM job adverts in response. The McKinsey and KPMG numbers will keep doing the headline work, but the real test is whether the shortlists look different in two years' time.
Key takeaways
- The shortage is structural, driven by an ageing workforce as much as by demand.
- PM job descriptions need rewriting around decisions, not qualifications.
- Sector-by-sector data matters more than a single global figure.
- Coaches, not bosses, is the working pattern the next cohort expects.
Frequently asked questions
How big is the project manager shortage, really?
Coverage cites McKinsey work pointing to around 5.5 million unfilled project management roles globally by 2030, alongside existing shortages flagged by KPMG and REC.
Why is the talent gap widening?
Arraspeople's 2020 data shows only 13% of project professionals were aged 34 or under, suggesting too few new entrants are replacing retirees.
What does the next generation want from a PM job?
Coverage references Gallup research: ongoing feedback, coaching-style managers, meaningful work and roles that fit inside a life outside work.
Which sectors are short?
KPMG and REC's "Report on Jobs" flags uneven shortages by sector, with some industries struggling much more than others.
What practical steps can employers take now?
Rewrite job adverts around the decisions a PM will own, broaden interview panels and back youth-focused bodies like IPMA Young Crew.