Project managers keep asking whether this is a candidate's market. The honest answer from the KPMG UK Jobs Report, as summarized by Arras People, is that it depends which market you mean. The headline number says one thing. The sector breakdown says another.
That gap is the story. Anyone who reads only the top line will miss the structural detail that actually decides whether your next move pays.
Quick take
- KPMG and REC report permanent placements and starting salaries rising sharply as recruitment accelerates from its COVID-19 low.
- Candidate availability has fallen for six consecutive months, the steepest decline since the series began in 1997.
- Project management is listed as both a skill in shortage and a skill in excess supply, depending on the recruiter.
- IT and computing leads the permanent placements index, with managerial and professional roles sixth out of ten.
- Private sector earnings growth is reported at 10.1 percent year on year, against 2.8 percent in the public sector.
The headline versus the detail
The KPMG UK Jobs Report describes a labor market accelerating out of the COVID-19 low, with rising permanent placements and rising starting salaries. The candidate availability index has fallen for six months in a row, and the most recent drop is the steepest since records began in 1997. On its own, that is a clear candidate-use signal.
The detail is less tidy. Project management shows up in two columns at once. Some recruiters list it as a skill in shortage for both permanent and temporary hires. Others list it as a skill in excess supply for both. Same role, same country, opposite classification. That is not a contradiction in the data. It is a contradiction in how project managers position themselves.
Why the split exists
The Arras People take is that market-level analysis is a blunt instrument for any individual project manager. A generalist PM with no sector anchor is competing against a much larger pool. A PM with regulated industry experience, a delivery framework specialty, or a hard technical skill sits in a much smaller pool.
The sector rankings support that reading. IT and computing leads permanent placements, with hotel and catering second and managerial and professional roles in sixth. On the temporary side, hotel and catering leads, nursing and medicine is second, and managerial and professional drops to ninth. Project management does not anchor either list on its own. It rides the wave of the sector it sits inside.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that much of the current hiring is for business-as-usual roles and re-recruitment of positions released earlier, rather than for genuinely new initiatives. That skews demand toward known quantities, not new program launches.
Who should care
| Situation | Implication | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Sector-anchored PM** (regulated industry, niche delivery specialty) | You are in the shortage column. Recruiters are actively competing for your profile. | Push for above-market starting salary. Negotiate sign-on bonus. You have use. |
| Generalist PM** (no sector anchor, broad methodology background) | You are in the surplus column. Recruiters have depth of choice. | Sharpen your sector story before applying. Generic CVs perform poorly here. |
| Hiring manager** (building a PM team) | Availability is at a multi-year low. Offer-to-acceptance rates are falling. | Lengthen your sourcing runway. Budget for salary inflation. Write roles around outcomes, not generic PM responsibilities. |
| Public sector recruiter | Earnings growth is 2.8 percent against 10.1 percent in the private sector. | Expect longer fill times and competition from private sector offers. Benefits and stability must be positioned explicitly. |
Our analysis
The market is real, but it is not uniform. If you are a project manager with a clear sector story, this is the strongest hiring window in years. If you are a generalist PM with no sector anchor, the headline numbers will mislead you.
The salary data is the cleanest signal. KPMG reports the fastest rise in starting salaries in almost 24 years, beating a previous record set only months earlier. That is a clear candidate-side lever, but only for candidates who anchor a conversation around specific value, not just a CV.
The risk for hiring managers is the inverse. The same data shows candidate availability at a multi-year low, which means interview-to-offer cycles stretch and offer acceptance rates fall. Plan for that or lose the people you actually want.
Worked example: Say you are a mid-career PM in the UK
You have led waterfall projects in financial services for eight years and you have a CSM. Read the report. Your market is not "project management" in the abstract. It is financial services PMs with regulated delivery experience. That is the pool to benchmark against, not the generalist index.
If you are pitching for a new role, frame your story around sector outcome—lower release cycle time, higher audit pass rate, whatever is true—rather than around your certifications. If you are hiring, write the role around a specific sector outcome too. Generic PM job descriptions are why your response rate is low.
What to watch next
Watch the next two KPMG reports for whether the candidate availability index stabilizes or keeps falling. Watch the ONS earnings data for whether the 10.1 percent private sector figure holds or begins to soften. The candidate market is real for sector-anchored PMs and a trap for generalists.
Key takeaways
- The candidate market is real at the headline level and uneven underneath.
- Project management is classified as both shortage and surplus, depending on the recruiter.
- Sector anchor and delivery specialty decide which side of that line you sit on.
- Starting salary growth is at its fastest in almost 24 years, according to KPMG.
- Private sector earnings are outpacing public sector earnings significantly.
Frequently asked questions
Is the UK a candidate's market for project managers?
At the headline level, yes. In practice, only for PMs with a clear sector or specialty anchor.
Why is project management listed as both shortage and surplus?
Different recruiters see different pools. Sector-anchored PMs are scarce; generalist PMs are not.
What does the ONS earnings data show?
A year-on-year rise of 8.8 percent in total earnings, with 10.1 percent in the private sector and 2.8 percent in the public sector.
Which sector leads permanent placements?
IT and computing leads, followed by hotel and catering, with managerial and professional roles in sixth place out of ten.